Highlights from Investment Outlook Seminar

After attending the Investment Outlook Seminar conducted by Financial Alliance Pte Ltd on Thurs, I felt that the presenter of seminar is pretty honest and frank about their sharing as well as in their investment strategy. The way they help their clients invest is not just by purely asset allocation but rather based on their research and market analysis in order to protect their client's capital. 

Although they too lost money during the economic downturn, the chart they showed us still has a positive return of 8% p.a. if the investment period is from 2004 to now. It looks pretty positive and consistent, yet slightly better as compared to the index benchmark they shown us. I'm not too sure about why they picked those benchmark but it seems pretty ok to me. I'd attend it again if I had the chance to.

The speaker mentioned that they believe that the current market might be at the beginning of the 4-stage Recovery Model that they shared with us. Which means the market will probably continue to go up for the next 3 - 6 months, according to their sharing. But the more curious part that I've yet to find out is what's next after the Recovery Model? Is it another breakdown, and hence the cycle repeats or is there some Stabilization Model after it?

They also mentioned that there's still worries about the slowing global economy and weaker earnings yet the market is pretty much in a bull run recently, probably due to the need to generate returns currently. Hence, it's more of an technical analysis sort of thing as there's not really any justifiable fundamental analysis to backup the uptrend in the current market situation. Which I think we will need to be more careful of our investments to ensure that there's at least some fundamental backing wherever possible so that we can sleep better at night and stay invested.

The 4 stage of recovery shared is pretty interesting: 

1. 1st stage is the base building toward recovery, which is in a way at the bottom of the market. 
2. 2nd stage is the adjustment from an oversold position, which means the market will correct upward rapidly.
3. 3rd stage is the consolidation period where the market moves sideways.
4. 4th stage is the new upward tend, whereby the market just keeps going up.

Then, I didn't see anymore diagram, so I'm not too sure what's next after that. But I felt that it should be after the market hit the peak then it'll lose balance and collapse again (Just my personal feeling, 'cos since nothing is shown, but from what I saw in the charts, it does look that way, although it's not highlighted.).

Anyway, they too have the disclaimers to tell us not to rely on their analysis and judgment too much, we should consult our adviser before any purchase, etc. So it's still back to... Please exercise independent thinking and not follow blindly. Whatever it is, just make sure that you know what you are doing. :-)